Search results for "Stochastic model"
showing 10 items of 109 documents
Nonlinear response theory for Markov processes II: Fifth-order response functions
2017
The nonlinear response of stochastic models obeying a master equation is calculated up to fifth-order in the external field thus extending the third-order results obtained earlier (G. Diezemann, Phys. Rev. E{\bf 85}, 051502 (2012)). For sinusoidal fields the $5\om$-component of the susceptibility is computed for the model of dipole reorientations in an asymmetric double well potential and for a trap model with a Gaussian density of states. For most realizations of the models a hump is found in the higher-order susceptibilities. In particular, for the asymmetric double well potential model there are two characteristic temperature regimes showing the occurence of such a hump as compared to a …
Economic modelling as a tool to support macroalgal bloom management: a case study (Sacca di Goro, Po river delta)
2003
During the last 20, years, intensive mollusk farming has been developed in coastal waters, mostly in sheltered bays and lagoons. Often, mollusk stocks are threatened by frequent anoxic events from macroalgal blooms. Here, a decision support tool is described to select the optimal short-term strategy to control algal biomasses. Even though long-term and detailed studies of the lagoon systems are required to provide reliable, biologically based policies, we have here developed a simplified analysis that overlooks most of the ecological complexity, but explicitly includes environmental variability and uncertainty in parameter estimation in the economic assessment of the performances of differe…
Stochastic models for phytoplankton dynamics in Mediterranean Sea
2016
Abstract In this paper, we review some results obtained from three one-dimensional stochastic models, which were used to analyze picophytoplankton dynamics in two sites of the Mediterranean Sea. Firstly, we present a stochastic advection–reaction–diffusion model to describe the vertical spatial distribution of picoeukaryotes in a site of the Sicily Channel. The second model, which is an extended version of the first one, is used to obtain the vertical stationary profiles of two groups of picophytoplankton, i.e. Pelagophytes and Prochlorococcus, in the same marine site as in the previous case. Here, we include intraspecific competition of picophytoplanktonic groups for limiting factors, i.e.…
The influence of temperature model assumptions on the prognosis accuracy of extinction risk
2000
Abstract For a species whose abundance is well-known to correlate on the degree of heat different temperature model assumptions may affect the prognosis accuracy of persistence. Likewise, year-to-year autocorrelations in weather fluctuations are known to decrease extinction risk. Thus, we investigated the grey bush cricket Platycleis albopunctata . For this species is known that growth and reproduction is mainly influenced by temperature. We developed a stochastic individual based model for the bush cricket. This day–degree model described the demographic growth of the species that depends on temperature. Daily temperatures were generated by five different methods: (i) temperatures were seq…
A Methodology for Modeling and Optimizing Social Systems
2020
[EN] A system methodology for modeling and optimizing social systems is presented. It allows constructing dynamical models formulated stochastically, i.e., their results are given by confidence intervals. The models provide optimal intervention ways to reach the stated objectives. Two optimization methods are used: (1) to test strategies and scenarios and (2) to optimize with a genetic algorithm. The application case presented is a small nonformal education Spanish business. First, the model is validated in the 2008-2012 period, and subsequently, the optimal way to obtain a maximum profit in the 2013-2025 period is obtained using the two methods.
Stochastic sampling effects favor manual over digital contact tracing.
2020
Isolation of symptomatic individuals, tracing and testing of their nonsymptomatic contacts are fundamental strategies for mitigating the current COVID-19 pandemic. The breaking of contagion chains relies on two complementary strategies: manual reconstruction of contacts based on interviews and a digital (app-based) privacy-preserving contact tracing. We compare their effectiveness using model parameters tailored to describe SARS-CoV-2 diffusion within the activity-driven model, a general empirically validated framework for network dynamics. We show that, even for equal probability of tracing a contact, manual tracing robustly performs better than the digital protocol, also taking into accou…
A Geometrical Channel Model for MIMO Mobile-to-Mobile Fading Channels in Cooperative Networks
2009
This paper deals with the modeling and analysis of narrowband multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) mobile- to-mobile (M2M) fading channels in relay-based cooperative networks. Non-line-of-sight (NLOS) propagation conditions are assumed in the transmission links from the source mobile station to the destination mobile station via the mobile relay. A stochastic narrowband MIMO M2M reference channel model is derived from the geometrical three-ring scattering model, where it is assumed that an infinite number of local scatterers surround the source mobile station, the mobile relay, and the destination mobile station. The complex channel gains associated with the new reference channel model are…
STABILITY OF A STOCHASTICALLY PERTURBED MODEL OF INTRACELLULAR SINGLE-STRANDED RNA VIRUS REPLICATION
2019
Compared to the replication of double-stranded RNA and DNA viruses, the replication of single-stranded viruses requires the production of a number of intermediate strands that serve as templates for the synthesis of genomic-sense strands. Two theoretical extreme mechanisms for replication for such single-stranded viruses have been proposed; one extreme being represented by the so-called linear stamping machine and the opposite extreme by the exponential growth. Of course, real systems are more complex and examples have been described in which a combination of such extreme mechanisms can also occur: a fraction of the produced progeny resulting from a stamping-machine type of replication that…
Surrogate data analysis of sleep electroencephalograms reveals evidence for nonlinearity
1996
We tested the hypothesis of whether sleep electroencephalographic (EEG) signals of different time windows (164 s, 82 s, 41 s and 20.5 s) are in accordance with linear stochastic models. For this purpose we analyzed the all-night sleep electroencephalogram of a healthy subject and corresponding Gaussian-rescaled phase randomized surrogates with a battery of five non-linear measures. The following nonlinear measures were implemented: largest Lyapunov exponent L1, correlation dimension D2, and the Green-Savit measures delta 2, delta 4 and delta 6. The hypothesis of linear stochastic data was rejected with high statistical significance. L1 and D2 yielded the most pronounced effects, while the G…
Gully erosion susceptibility assessment by means of GIS-based logistic regression: A case of Sicily (Italy)
2014
article i nfo Article history: This research aims at characterizing susceptibility conditions to gully erosion by means of GIS and multivariate statistical analysis. The study area is a 9.5 km 2 river catchment in central-northern Sicily, where agriculture ac- tivities are limited by intense erosion. By means of field surveys and interpretation of aerial images, we prepared a digitalmap of thespatial distribution of 260 gulliesinthestudy area.Inaddition,fromavailable thematicmaps, a 5 m cell size digital elevation model and field checks, we derived 27 environmental attributes that describe the variability of lithology, land use, topography and road position. These attributes were selected f…